Weekly Economic Update – January 7, 2019 January 7, 2019 2018 ENDED WITH A HIRING SURGE The latest Department of Labor jobs report suggests an economy with plenty of forward momentum. Employers added 312,000 net new jobs in December, the most in ten months. The main jobless rate rose 0.2% to 3.9% as more Americans entered the labor force; the U-6 rate, measuring underemployment, held [...]
Weekly Economic Update – December 31, 2018 December 31, 2018 YEAR-END SPECIAL EDITION: A LOOK BACK AT 2018 The close of the year provides an opportunity for investors to step back and consider the wider financial landscape. This week, we’re reviewing some key issues that defined 2018, as well as some factors that may influence financial markets in the coming year. YEAR IN REVIEW Wall [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – December 24, 2018 December 24, 2018 FED FAILS TO CALM WALL STREET Federal Reserve policymakers voted unanimously last week to raise the benchmark interest rate by another 0.25%, putting the main overnight lending rate in the 2.25-2.50% range. Investors hoped for a hint of a pause in the Fed’s tightening plans, yet no such signal emerged. The central bank’s latest dot-plot [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – December 17, 2018 December 17, 2018 AS FUEL GROWS CHEAPER, INFLATION BECOMES TAMER Last week, the latest Consumer Price Index arrived, showing no move for headline inflation in November and a 0.2% core inflation increase. That precisely matched the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters. What held the headline CPI in check last month? You can credit a sudden drop [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – December 10, 2018 December 10, 2018 HIRING PACE SLOWS In November, U.S. employers added a net 155,000 hires to their payrolls. That compares with a (revised) gain of 237,000 recorded by the federal government for October. The Department of Labor’s latest jobs report showed the main unemployment rate holding steady at just 3.7%, and the U-6 rate (unemployed and underemployed) rising [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – December 3, 2018 December 3, 2018 COMMENTS FROM JEROME POWELL INSPIRE A RALLY Wall Street liked what it heard from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell last week. While speaking Wednesday to an audience in New York, Powell stated that interest rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that [...]
Weekly Economic Update – November 26, 2018 November 26, 2018 SUDDENLY, MORE HOMES SELL Existing home sales improved in October for the first time in seven months. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.4% monthly increase, while also noting that the annualized sales pace was 5.1% slower than it had been 12 months earlier. Across the year ending in October, the median sales price [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – November 19, 2018 November 19, 2018 IN OCTOBER, INFLATION JUMPED THE MOST SINCE JANUARY The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the largest monthly gain for the headline CPI since its 0.5% move in the first month of the year. A 3.0% leap in gasoline prices played a significant role. Core [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – November 12, 2018 November 12, 2018 SERVICE SECTOR KEEPS BOOMING At a lofty October mark of 60.3, the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was a bit lower than the record 61.6 reading seen in September, but it also beat the 59.3 consensus forecast from Refinitiv. Across the 12 months ending in October, the mean reading for the index [...]
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Weekly Economic Update – November 5, 2018 November 5, 2018 HIRING SURGED LAST MONTH The Department of Labor’s latest employment report painted a picture of a thriving economy. Payrolls expanded with 250,000 net new hires in October, with wages improving 3.1% year-over-year (that was the best 12-month wage increase in nine years). Unemployment remained remarkably low at 3.7%; underemployment, as measured by the U-6 rate, [...]