Weekly Economic Update – August 20, 2018 August 20, 2018 MID-SUMMER MEANT BUYING FOR CONSUMERS According to new Census Bureau data, retail sales were 0.5% improved in July. Core retail sales (all categories except car and truck buying) rose 0.6% last month. The only sour note was the revision the Bureau made to June’s headline and core retail sales advances. The overall June retail sales [...]
Weekly Economic Update – August 13, 2018 August 13, 2018 INFLATION AT 2.9%, CORE INFLATION AT 2.4% Friday, the Department of Labor reported these annualized gains through July of this year for the Consumer Price Index. Both the headline and core CPIs rose 0.2% last month, matching the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters. The yearly core inflation increase is the largest on record [...]
Weekly Economic Update – August 6, 2018 August 6, 2018 ECONOMY ADDS 157,000 NET NEW JOBS Employers expanded their payrolls in July, but new Department of Labor data showed the hiring pace slowing down. May and June gains, however, were revised up by a combined 59,000, bringing average monthly job growth over the past three months to 224,000. Even with fewer hires, the headline unemployment [...]
Weekly Economic Update – July 30, 2018 July 30, 2018 FIRST ESTIMATE OF Q2 GDP: 4.1% Not since the third quarter of 2014 has the economy grown at such a pace. In its report released Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted 4.0% growth in consumer outlays during the quarter, a 7.3% improvement in business spending, and 3.5% more federal government spending. The BEA also [...]
Weekly Economic Update – July 23, 2018 July 23, 2018 ANOTHER GOOD MONTH FOR RETAIL SALES Americans are spending freely, as new Census Bureau data confirms. Retail sales advanced 0.5% last month, matching the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters, in the wake of a revised 1.3% May gain. (May was the best month for buying since last September.) The only negative note: core [...]
Weekly Economic Update – July 15, 2018 July 15, 2018 INFLATION NEARS 3% The federal government’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% across the 12 months ending in June, a level of annualized inflation last seen in February 2012. Yearly inflation has now increased for five straight months (although the headline CPI went north only 0.1% last month). The core CPI, which removes food and fuel [...]
Weekly Economic Update – July 9, 2018 July 9, 2018 ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR THE LABOR MARKET Employers hired 213,000 more workers than they laid off in June, according to the Department of Labor. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a gain of 195,000. In the second quarter, net monthly job growth averaged 211,000. As the labor force participation rate increased 0.2% last month, so [...]
Weekly Economic Update – July 2, 2018 July 2, 2018 INCOME AND SPENDING RISE, ALONG WITH CORE INFLATION According to the latest monthly Department of Commerce snapshot, personal incomes improved 0.4% in May. Personal spending, however, advanced just 0.2% (half the gain forecast by economists polled by Reuters) and was actually flat when adjusted for inflation. May also brought the sixth straight 0.2% monthly increase [...]
Weekly Economic Update – June 25, 2018 June 25, 2018 TARIFF TALK INTENSIFIES Major economic powers proposed additional import taxes last week, as investors wondered if a global trade war was now underway. Monday evening, President Trump stated that he had instructed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to identify another $200 billion of Chinese products to subject to a new 10% import duty. Shortly before [...]
Weekly Economic Update – June 18, 2018 June 18, 2018 FED, NEW TARIFFS GET WALL STREET’S ATTENTION As expected, the Federal Reserve adjusted the target range on the federal funds rate to 1.75%-2.00% on Wednesday. The central bank’s latest dot-plot projection, however, raised some eyebrows: it showed four interest rate increases planned for 2018 instead of three. The median forecast of Fed officials puts the [...]